AGP Executive Report

Earthquake Response: Panama declared a nationwide emergency after the 7.7-magnitude quake, authorizing up to $100 million for urgent purchases and works. The government also plans to seek temporary relief from fiscal limits, subject to Assembly approval. Shipping Risks: A U.S. fighter jet disabled the Panama-flagged cargo ship Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman, saying it was breaching the Iran blockade; the crew was unharmed. Meanwhile, attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz are stoking oil-supply fears and pushing prices higher. Tax Policy: The EU removed Panama from its tax blacklist but will continue monitoring reforms. Canal Operations: The Panama Canal extended its LoTSA program to Panamax locks for the 2027 dry season, while U.S.-supplied autonomous vessels are supporting maritime surveillance near the Canal approaches.

Maritime Risks: A U.S. fighter jet disabled the Panama-flagged cargo ship Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman, which Washington said had ignored blockade warnings after leaving an Iranian port. Separately, 22 crew members were rescued after a tanker incident off the UAE, underscoring rising risks for commercial shipping. Earthquake Response: After the 7.7-magnitude quake disrupted power and transport, the government declared a national emergency, allowing up to $100 million in expedited spending and seeking temporary relief from fiscal limits. Naturgy says power has been restored to 97% of its customers. Business Climate: The EU removed Panama from its tax blacklist but will continue monitoring reforms, a boost to the country’s standing with investors. Small Businesses: A new Assembly proposal would revise retiree discounts and create a fund to help microenterprises cover the cost, following concerns that mandated discounts could burden retailers.

Maritime Risk: U.S. forces disabled the Panama-flagged cargo ship Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman, saying it ignored warnings and tried to evade the blockade on Iranian ports. The crew was unharmed. The incident adds to risks for Panama’s shipping registry as attacks and disruptions threaten Gulf routes. Earthquake Impact: A magnitude 7.7 quake injured people and damaged more than 400 buildings, according to local reports. The Panama Canal Authority said operations continued normally after inspections. Tax Status: The EU removed Panama from its tax blacklist after reforms, but placed it under continued monitoring; the move is not a full clearance. Tanker Attack: A Panama-flagged supertanker was struck near Sharjah, setting off a fire. All 22 crew members were safe, but the cause remains disputed, with Iran claiming a mine strike and others reporting a projectile or drone.

Earthquake Response: A magnitude 7.7 quake hit Panama on Oct. 9, injuring at least 27 people and damaging more than 400 buildings. The Panama Canal remained open, while +Móvil offered customers free Starlink text messaging for 48 hours. Tax Status: The EU has removed Panama from its tax blacklist after reforms to its foreign-income tax regime. Panama moves to a monitoring list pending a review of its information-sharing framework. Maritime Safety: A drone struck Panama-flagged tanker MT GEM NO. 2 at Sharjah Anchorage; all 22 Indian crew members were reported safe. The attack adds to rising risks for commercial shipping. Canal Capacity: The Canal Authority extended its long-term slot allocation program to Panamax locks for the 2027 dry season, expanding advance transit reservations. Growth Outlook: The World Bank projects Panama’s economy will grow by more than 4% annually through 2028.

Earthquake Disrupts Business: A powerful quake damaged infrastructure, disrupted electricity and water supplies, and affected commercial activity across several provinces. +Móvil offered customers free Starlink SMS for 48 hours to help people stay connected. EU Tax Status: The EU removed Panama from its tax blacklist, moving it to a watchlist pending review. The government says the change could ease concerns for European investors, though the benefits will depend on business conditions and investment decisions. Canal and Trade: The Panama Canal extended its long-term slot program to Panamax locks for the 2027 dry season, as drought-related shipping constraints continue to divert cargo to other routes. Shipping Risks: A drone attack struck the Panama-flagged tanker GEM NO. 2 off the UAE; all 22 crew members were reported safe. Vietnam Ties: President José Raúl Mulino’s visit to Vietnam focused on expanding economic cooperation and positioning both countries as gateways between Southeast Asia and Latin America.

Maritime Risk: A Panama-flagged crude tanker, Gem No.2, was struck by a projectile in the Gulf on Oct. 9, sparking a fire that was extinguished; crew and vessel damage were not yet confirmed. Registry Oversight: Panama’s maritime authority restricted three locally registered vessels named in new U.S. Iran sanctions and began cancelling their registrations. Canal Operations: The Panama Canal extended its long-term booking program to Panamax locks for the 2027 dry season, expanding advance transit reservations. Trade and Growth: President José Raúl Mulino’s Vietnam visit produced agreements to deepen economic cooperation, with both countries promoting themselves as gateways between Southeast Asia and Latin America. The World Bank says Panama continues to post strong growth, while projecting regional growth of 2.2% in 2026.

Registry Compliance: Panama’s Maritime Authority says it has restricted three Panama-flagged vessels named in new U.S. sanctions and started cancelling their registrations. It also says no vessels on the UK’s latest Russia sanctions list remain on Panama’s registry. Tax Status: Panama could be removed from the EU tax blacklist on Oct. 9, after six years, as the country seeks to show it has addressed the concerns behind its listing. Maritime Risk: A projectile strike injured 11 Indian crew members aboard a Panama-flagged vessel near the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring the security risks facing commercial shipping. Canal Capacity: The Canal is expanding advance reservations for Panamax locks for the 2027 dry season, offering shippers more certainty as route disruptions and congestion pressure global trade. Trade and Growth: President José Raúl Mulino’s Vietnam visit focused on closer economic ties and investment; the World Bank says Panama remains among the region’s stronger-growth economies, with a separate outlook projecting growth above 4% through 2028.

Trade Links: President José Raúl Mulino wrapped up his Vietnam visit, with both countries pledging deeper economic, trade and investment ties and casting Panama as a gateway between Southeast Asia and Latin America. Canal & Tourism: The Panama Canal expanded its long-term booking program to Panamax locks for the 2027 dry season. Carnival Miracle opened the 2026–27 cruise season, with more than 220 transits expected. Maritime Risk: The Panama-flagged vessel On Peace was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, injuring 12 crew members; all were accounted for, ten were evacuated for treatment and no pollution was reported. Growth Outlook: The World Bank projects Panama’s economy will grow by more than 4% through 2028. Infrastructure: A $255.2 million contract has been awarded for a six-station cable-car system in San Miguelito.

Shipping & Canal: Panama has expanded long-term transit reservations to the Panamax locks for the 2027 dry season, offering shippers more advance-planning options. The move comes as a Panama-flagged tanker was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, injuring crew, while oil prices remain volatile. Growth Outlook: The World Bank projects Panama’s economy will grow 4.2% in 2026 and stay above 4% through 2028, outpacing its 2.2% regional forecast. Canal traffic, logistics and trade helped drive 5.5% growth in the first half of 2026. Vietnam Trade: President José Raúl Mulino’s visit produced cooperation agreements on maritime transport, agriculture and customs, among other areas. Bilateral trade reached about $478 million in 2025, up 19.2%, and business groups signed a deal to promote trade and investment. Infrastructure: Panama Metro awarded Doppelmayr Panama a $255.2 million contract for a six-station cable-car system in San Miguelito, with construction and testing scheduled over 30 months after the order to proceed.

Maritime Security: A projectile struck Panama-flagged vessel MT On Peace in the Strait of Hormuz, injuring 12 crew members, including 11 Indians. Oman evacuated the injured; the attack highlights risks to ships carrying Panama’s flag. Cargo Investment: SATS and Tocumen International Airport will explore developing air-cargo facilities at Tocumen Cargo City, aiming to strengthen Panama’s links between Asia and the Americas. Trade Ties: President José Raúl Mulino’s Vietnam visit is advancing cooperation in trade, investment, logistics, aviation and finance. Canal Outlook: The Panama Canal is expanding long-term transit reservations for 2027, while drought has pushed some ships toward the Strait of Magellan, where traffic rose more than 70% in August and September year over year. Tax Status: EU finance ministers are expected to vote October 9 on removing Panama from the bloc’s tax blacklist, where it has remained since 2020.

Maritime Security & Trade: India condemned a projectile strike on the Panama-flagged tanker MT On Peace in the Strait of Hormuz, injuring 12 crew members (11 Indians) and prompting calls for an immediate halt to attacks and restoration of navigation. Public Works & Mobility: Panama and San Miguelito’s cable car contract was ratified, with Doppelmayr Panama Corp. set to deliver a 6.6 km system with six stations to connect with Metro Line 2 at an estimated $255.2 million over 30 months. Climate Risk for the Canal: A Deloitte Econosignal report warns El Niño could disrupt Central American energy, food and logistics in 2027, with potential Panama Canal impacts via lower lake levels, possible transit limits, and higher shipping costs. EU Tax Status: The EU is expected to remove Panama from its tax blacklist on Oct. 9, ending a six-year designation. Regional Growth Outlook: The World Bank projects Latin America and the Caribbean growth of 2.2% in 2026, citing Panama among stronger performers, while flagging El Niño and energy-price volatility as key downside risks. Shipping Markets: ClarkSea Index hit an all-time high, reflecting disruption-driven rate strength across crude, LPG and other segments.

Panama Canal & Shipping: The Canal announced a new Long-term Slot Allocation (LoTSA) phase for Neopanamax and a new Panamax pilot, aiming to give shippers more transit predictability via sealed-bid slot packages for Jan–Apr 2027. Maritime Risk for Panama-flagged Trade: India condemned an attack on the Panama-flagged tanker MT On Peace off Oman in the Strait of Hormuz, saying 12 crew were injured (11 Indians) and that injured sailors were evacuated to Khasab for treatment. Energy & Trade Disruption Watch: Gulf oil flows are rebounding despite rising Hormuz attacks, but analysts warn higher freight, insurance, and security costs could test how sustainable the rerouting is. Labor Mobility Linked to Panama: Israel’s private recruitment rules for construction workers will exclude Sri Lankan and Indian recruitment via the private system from Jan. 1, 2027, while Panama is listed among approved countries. Vietnam–Panama Business Push: Vietnam and Panama leaders met the press in Hanoi, highlighting expanded cooperation in trade, investment, port logistics, finance/banking, tourism, and transport, with trade nearing $500m in 2025.

Canal & Trade: Singapore has joined the Protocol on the Panama Canal’s permanent neutrality, backing free navigation as President José Raúl Mulino visits Hanoi and pushes Panama as a logistics gateway for Vietnam. Canal Capacity: The Panama Canal Authority will add a daily transit slot from 15 Oct and raise Neo-Panamax draft limits to 49 feet, citing improved Gatun Lake levels. Canal Planning: The ACP also extended long-term booking for Neo-Panamax locks and launched a Panamax pilot under LoTSA.3.0, with sealed-bid auctions in Nov 2026. Tax & Banking: Panama’s Specialized Prosecutor’s Office arrested former BAC Panama finance executive Arnold Salgado Galeano in the “Operation Pandora” tax-credit scheme, alleging at least $40m in damages tied to the e-Tax 2.0 platform. Governance & Assets: Panama’s Comptroller General seized three properties linked to former VP José Gabriel “Gaby” Carrizo Jaén over alleged unjustified enrichment. Security & Shipping: Iran resumed tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, while Gulf exports hover near pre-war levels—raising shipping and oil-price risks that can ripple into Panama’s import costs. Energy & Investment: Mulino’s Vietnam trip also targets new agreements in agriculture, aviation and maritime cooperation, aiming to attract investment.

Panama Canal Update: With Gatun Lake levels slightly above the 10-year average, the Panama Canal Authority will add a transit slot on 15 Oct (33 slots from 32) and immediately raise neopanamax maximum draft to 49 feet from 48.5, easing pressure tied to El Niño drought risk. Bilateral Business Push: Panama’s foreign minister met Singapore business leaders to pitch major infrastructure and logistics projects, including the Fourth Bridge, Tocumen airport expansion, and regional airport work aimed at boosting investment and jobs. Real Estate Networking: MyRealtor’s “Discover Panama” after-hours event in Grand Cayman drew 200+ investors and highlighted GranCentral Panama as a residential and investment opportunity for the Central American market. Diplomatic Spotlight: President José Raúl Mulino and spouse began a four-day official visit to Vietnam, framed as the first high-level exchange in nearly 15 years and a new push for trade, maritime, logistics, and investment ties. Skills & Workforce: INADEH opened pre-registration for 1,663 free training courses for late-2026, covering tech, logistics, construction, tourism, and entrepreneurship. Regional Connectivity: Caribbean Airlines announced new and resumed routes, including Tobago–Toronto (from 25 Oct) and renewed Trinidad–Caracas service (from 31 Oct), plus charter flights including to Panama.

Panama’s Investment Push in Singapore: President José Raúl Mulino is on a three-day state visit to Singapore to deepen legal and maritime cooperation and attract capital into logistics, trade, agri-trade and sustainability, while Panama’s foreign minister also met Singapore business leaders to pitch major infrastructure and mobility projects, including the Fourth Bridge over the Panama Canal and Tocumen airport expansion. Real Estate Expansion: Sotheby’s International Realty added Panama to its regional network, bringing its footprint to 65 offices across the Caribbean and Latin America. Aviation Connectivity: Caribbean Airlines announced new and returning routes—Tobago to Toronto (starting Oct. 25), Trinidad to Caracas (resuming Oct. 31), plus charter flights between Trinidad and Panama from Dec. 1. Local Governance Watch: In Arraiján, lawmakers are demanding an audit after nearly $1 million in Metro funds tied to the Juan Demóstenes Arosemena community board reportedly lacks a clear explanation for delays and spending. Culture & Media Co-Production: Panama and the Dominican Republic signed an agreement to promote film and audiovisual co-productions.

Bilateral Deals: Panama and the Dominican Republic signed a film and audiovisual co-production agreement during the Santo Domingo International Book Fair, aiming to connect artists and unlock private investment in the creative sector. Diplomacy & Investment Push: President José Raúl Mulino’s Vietnam trip (Oct. 5-8) is framed as a historic step to deepen trade, maritime/logistics cooperation, investment and people-to-people ties. Regional Connectivity: Caribbean Airlines will resume Trinidad–Caracas flights on Oct. 31 and add Tobago–Toronto service from Oct. 25, plus charter flights between Trinidad and Panama starting Dec. 1. Canal Watch: Panama Canal restrictions are easing as rainfall improves—neopanamax transits rise to 10/day from Oct. 15 and maximum authorized neopanamax draft increases. Local Governance: In Arraiján, nearly $1m in Metro funds for the Juan Demóstenes Arosemena community board is under audit after officials questioned where the money went. Crypto Finance: Jeeves led a $110m equity round to scale stablecoin-native banking for global business payments. Public Safety: Police deployed around 1,000 units across shopping centers during Panama’s Black Weekend to deter crime and protect shoppers.